2012 NFL Playoffs: Championship Weekend Preview

Four VERY interesting games went down last weekend. Let’s take a look:

I knew the Saints-49ers game was going to be good but I was proven wrong, it was GREAT. It actually looked like my score prediction would come through (27-21) all the way through the 4th quarter! Then with a little over four minutes left in the fourth quarter this game turned into a playoff classic. Both teams traded scores twice and they all included amazing plays. It’s crazy to think that Alex Smith could win a shootout in the playoffs against a QB that is fresh off breaking passing records. My favorite play: Alex Smith’s 28 yard touchdown run.

On the other hand the night game very much less exciting. There was a sense that all this Tebow magic and Tebow hype was going to end. There isn’t a better personnel group to end someone’s magical run than the New England Patriots. Even though the Broncos were within a touchdown midway through the second quarter, this game had the feeling that it was over once the Patriots had their first score. Tom Brady looked like a surgeon out there. Even with the interception in the first quarter, you had to expect he’d be doing something special. He delivered: passing for FIVE touchdowns in the first half. He also added another touchdown in the second half just for kicks and just to tie the all-time record in a playoff game. Favorite play: Tom Brady’s 48 yard punt late in the fourth.

Sunday’s games started with a snoozer. Forgive me Ravens and Texans fans. This game basically had three things: Ravens struggling with offensive efficiency, Arian Foster running for whatever he could manage to get and the Texans committing turnovers along with the Ravens defense taking advantage of it. The Ravens really didn’t impress me in this game mostly because they had all the breaks go in their favor and they only managed to win by one score at home. Favorite play: none.

The Giants were able to successfully rush Rodgers because their front four doesn’t need much help and the defense can put everyone else in coverage. What was obvious? The Packers, specifically Rodgers’ timing with his receivers, showed plenty of rust…not rest. A couple of big plays later and the Giants were well on their way to upsetting the Packers in Green Bay. Shades of ’07? That remains to be seen but I know I wouldn’t want to face this team right now. Favorite play: Hail Mary pass to end of the first half. How many times have we seen that successfully completed in such a high stake environment?

On to the championship games:

Sunday 1/22
3:00 ET
-Baltimore Ravens AT New England Patriots(-7)-
The Patriots are rolling and the Ravens have been less that smooth this postseason. Don’t tell that to the Ravens though! This is a very similar team from the one that went into New England a few years ago in the playoffs and came out with a sound 33-14 victory so you have to think confidence won’t be a problem for Baltimore. A team not so similar from the one in the loss? This Patriots team. TEs Gronkowski and Hernandez were not on the team and they are going to be the primary threats against a Ravens defense that doesn’t match up well against. Yes, the Ravens defense plays very well but they’re not the type that is needed to stop Brady and Co. There has to be a heavy pass rush and the Ravens have only been successful doing so against bad teams. The Ravens must (I repeat MUST) establish their running game early in order to keep up with the offensive firepower of the Patriots. Last week the Patriots game up almost 150 yards on the ground and if the Ravens don’t take advantage of that, they’re going to be looking at an uphill battle all day. In my opinion that’s the only way this game favors the Ravens because I think Tom Brady is just on another level…especially against an offense as inconsistent as the Ravens. His ability to pick apart defenses combined with his weapons that are impossible to defend turn out to be the winning formula. Too much Brady, too much Gronkowksi, too much Welker and too much Hernandez.
My prediction: Patriots-31 Ravens-20

6:30 ET
-New York Giants AT San Francisco 49ers(-2.5)-
Many people didn’t expect that these would be the two teams left atop of the NFC. After plenty of hard hits and plenty of big plays, the Niners and G-men are going to meet in what I think will be an instant classic. Not so much on offense, though. The weather is supposed to be wet and cold so it sets up perfect for a hard-hitting, physical affair. The Giants are a team playing on all cylinders that is led by the elite play of QB Eli Manning along with that dangerous defensive line. Does that remind anyone of their 2007 Super Bowl championship team? It does to me. The 49ers on the other hand are being led by a surging Alex Smith who is proving doubters wrong left and right. Their defense? Tops in the league and I think the 49ers defense is the hardest hitting in the league by a large margin. The Giants had favorable plays go in their direction the entire game and you better believe that the San Francisco secondary isn’t going to let Eli complete a 40 yard prayer to end a half. Both teams will effectively rush the quarterback but the 49ers have the better running game to loosen up the defense and force linebackers to bite, thus creating chances for big plays downfield. In a close game like this, the team that can make a big play and limit their turnovers will win. Two things I just CAN’T shake about this game: Too many people picking against such a fiery and tough home favorite is never a good thing. Also, I know this isn’t the regular season BUT every single time people are riding a Giants hot streak, they end up failing to deliver.
My prediction: 49ers-20 Giants-17